Two weeks ago I posted a detailed article on the chances of Endgame passing The Force Awakens for the highest grossing movie of all time. It was a long article but the summary of the article was this: The Force Awakens made $937 million and Endgame made $357 million opening weekend. Last year Infinity War made 38% of its money opening weekend. If Endgame made exactly 38% of its money opening weekend it would make it to $942 million and pass Force Awakens by a mere 5 million. So how has it played out since then.
In short, the chances of Endgame passing The Force Awakens is now completely dead. Endgame ended up being much more frontloaded than Infinity War.
Like I said last time, Endgame would need to follow Infinity Wars run from last year to match the Force Awakens and that has not happened. In weekend number two from May 3rd-May 5th Endgame dropped 58.7% from opening weekend, compared to Infinity War last year which dropped 55.5% in its second weekend. In its third weekend from May 10th-May 12th Endgame dropped 57.1% from its second weekend, compared to Infinity War which only dropped 45.9% in its third weekend. Endgames drops are harder than Infinity Wars drops were, so it has ended up being more frontloaded than Infinity War and it is too late to stabilize enough to catch Force Awakens.
At this rate, Endgame looks headed for a total of around 870 to 890 Million, Still easily enough to pass Avatar's 760 million for second all time, but ending up well short of Force Awakens.
