In 1996, Titanic took over the Box Office world and became the highest grossing movie of all time, amassing 659 million dollars. That record stood for 14 years until Avatar finally overtook it when it made 760 million, and finally Stars Wars: The Force Awakens overtook Avatar in 2015 with a stunning 936 million. So what chance does Endgame have of getting to 937 million and overtaking Force Awakens for the throne?
To the untrained eye it may seem like Endgame should have no problem doing it? After all, after three days Force Awakens had 247 million and after three days Endgame has 357 so its already pacing 110 million ahead. But unfortunately its going to end up being a lot closer than it seems at first.
For starters Marvel movies are notoriously "frontloaded" meaning they make a higher percentage of their overall money in opening weekend compared to the average movie. The Force Awakens made just 27% of its money opening weekend while the average Marvel movie makes about 35% in its opening weekend. Infinity War made 38% if its overall gross opening weekend, and Endgame will probably do about the same. If Endgame does exactly the same as Infinity War it would finish at 942 million, just eking past Force Awakens. Judging off of that alone, its going to be an incredibly close call. Remember, Infinity War also made more opening weekend than The Force Awakens did, but ended up finishing at $670 million, almost $270 million behind Force Awakens. Here's a look at the most frontloaded and most backloaded Marvel movies
Frontloaded
Captain America Civil War- Opening Weekend: 179 Million Final: 408 Million Total Percentage Made Opening Weekend: 44% If Endgame makes 44% opening weekend it will finish with: 810 Million
Backloaded: Guardians of the Galaxy-Opening Weekend: 94 Million Final: 333 Million Total Percentage Made Opening Weekend: 28% If Endgame makes 28% of its money opening weekend it will finish with: 1.1 Billion
These are extreme examples. There is no way Endgame will be as frontloaded as Civil War. Civil War had an unsatisfying ending and the hero vs hero concept did not attract many people who were not hardcore Marvel fans, causing it to be very frontloaded. nor is their any chance it will be as backloaded as Guardians of the Galaxy. Guardians of the Galaxy was a surprise hit with very little pre-release hype, a big factor in a movie being backloaded that obviously doesn't apply to Endgame. Almost always a movie with big pre-release hype is going to be frontloaded.
So how did the Force Awakens manage to be so backloaded even though it had a ton of pre-release hype? Its release date. The Force Awakens came out in Mid December, meaning it had two full weeks of Christmas Break season to wrack up insane amounts of money, whereas Endgame will need to make most of its money on weekends with school still in session. Any movie that gets released in December or June/July generally tends to be backloaded because school breaks gives people more time to see movies. We see Force Awakens predictably making up ground right off the bat on the first Monday. Yesterday Endgame made 36 million while Force Awakens made 40 million on its first Monday. On the first weekday Endgame lost 4 million off its pace from Force Awakens and has gone from being 110 million ahead of pace to 106. That pace is going to continue to shrink the next two weeks as Endgame will inevitably have smaller weekdays than The Force Awakens did during the Christmas Break season. At the end of the day its going to be a very fun race to follow as it really is going to be very close, and right now its honestly a 50/50 call. Passing Avatar and becoming the 2nd highest of all time is a lock, and even if it doesnt beat out Force Awakens, number two is pretty awesome as well.
Tuesday, April 30, 2019
Monday, April 29, 2019
A History of movies breaking the record for biggest opening weekend ever.
Avengers: Endgame just broke the record for the biggest opening weekend ever. This was 100% expected, as everybody knew Endgame would top the record Infinity War set last year at 257 Million. What was not expected was how Endgame completely decimated that record. A few though Endgame had a chance at cracking 300 million, including yours truly, but NOONE foresaw what looks to be a mind boggling 360 million weekend from Endgame, which would top the previous record by over 100 Million!
What makes that so newsworthy is that breaking the opening weekend record is not actually something that is a rare feat. Not at all in fact. In 1975 Jaws set the opening weekend record when it made $7 million in its first three days. Yes, 7 million was the record which seems laughable now. Endgame recently became the 28th movie to break the previous record holder in 44 years. Do the math and that means the opening weekend record gets broken on average about once every 1.5 years. What is incredible about what Endgame did this weekend is that the opening weekend record has never lasted for more than 4 years without being broken but Endgame just decimated the previous record by so much it feels out of reach for a long time. I'd say theres a good chance it will be the first movie ever to hold the opening weekend record for more than 4 years and I'd bet it will last at least ten years, which is unprecedented.
Why does the opening weekend record get broken so often? There are a lot of factors but three very major ones.
1. Social media gets bigger and more popular every year. In the technology age, even waiting a week to see a movie feels too long as the potential to run across spoilers is dangerous and everyone wants to join in online discussions of the movie. No one wants to feel left out so they rush to see the movie right away.
2. As recently as twenty years ago movies opened on Friday mornings and that was the way it was. Then midnight screenings came into the picture and gave movies more time to make more money on opening weekend. Then about 7 years ago studios just started playing new movies on Thursday nights and called it "preview night." This basically gives movies a whole extra day to make money opening weekend than they used to get. The first playings of Endgame were at 6PM on Thursday.
3. Increase in ticket prices: This one is obvious. Movie ticket prices have skyrocketed since 1975, even since 2000. The average ticket price in 2019 is $9.01, in 2009 it was $7.50 and in 1999 it was $5.08.
Here are some notable movies to break the record, how much they made and also in parentheses how much they would have made if the average ticket price had been $9.01 like they are for Endgame.
1981: Superman 2. 14 Million (45 Million)
1983-Return of the Jedi: 21 Million (96 Million)
1989-Batman: 40 Million (96 Million)
1993-Jurassic Park: 47 Million (109 Million)
2001-Harry Potter and the Sorcerers Stone: 90 Million (143 Million)
2002-Spider-Man: 114 Million (178 Million) (First movie to make 100 Million Opening Weekend)
2006-Pirates of the Carribean 2: 135 Million (186 Million)
2007-Spider-Man 3: 151 Million (197 Million)
2008-The Dark Knight: 158 Million (198 Million)
2011-Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: 169 Million (191 Million)
2012-The Avengers: 207 Million (230 Million) (First movie to make 200 Million Opening Weekend)
2015-Jurassic World: 208 Million (228 Million)
2015: Star Wars Episode 7: 247 Million (256 Million)
2018: Avengers: Infinity War: 257 Million (247 Million), yes the average movie ticket has gone down since last year.
2019: Avengers: Endgame: 357 Million (First movie to make 300 Million Opening weekend)
As you can see, even if you give every movie 2019 ticket prices, none of them come even with 100 million of endgame, really putting into perspective how unreal this opening weekend is. When will it be topped? I am betting on 2030 at the earliest.
What makes that so newsworthy is that breaking the opening weekend record is not actually something that is a rare feat. Not at all in fact. In 1975 Jaws set the opening weekend record when it made $7 million in its first three days. Yes, 7 million was the record which seems laughable now. Endgame recently became the 28th movie to break the previous record holder in 44 years. Do the math and that means the opening weekend record gets broken on average about once every 1.5 years. What is incredible about what Endgame did this weekend is that the opening weekend record has never lasted for more than 4 years without being broken but Endgame just decimated the previous record by so much it feels out of reach for a long time. I'd say theres a good chance it will be the first movie ever to hold the opening weekend record for more than 4 years and I'd bet it will last at least ten years, which is unprecedented.
Why does the opening weekend record get broken so often? There are a lot of factors but three very major ones.
1. Social media gets bigger and more popular every year. In the technology age, even waiting a week to see a movie feels too long as the potential to run across spoilers is dangerous and everyone wants to join in online discussions of the movie. No one wants to feel left out so they rush to see the movie right away.
2. As recently as twenty years ago movies opened on Friday mornings and that was the way it was. Then midnight screenings came into the picture and gave movies more time to make more money on opening weekend. Then about 7 years ago studios just started playing new movies on Thursday nights and called it "preview night." This basically gives movies a whole extra day to make money opening weekend than they used to get. The first playings of Endgame were at 6PM on Thursday.
3. Increase in ticket prices: This one is obvious. Movie ticket prices have skyrocketed since 1975, even since 2000. The average ticket price in 2019 is $9.01, in 2009 it was $7.50 and in 1999 it was $5.08.
Here are some notable movies to break the record, how much they made and also in parentheses how much they would have made if the average ticket price had been $9.01 like they are for Endgame.
1981: Superman 2. 14 Million (45 Million)
1983-Return of the Jedi: 21 Million (96 Million)
1989-Batman: 40 Million (96 Million)
1993-Jurassic Park: 47 Million (109 Million)
2001-Harry Potter and the Sorcerers Stone: 90 Million (143 Million)
2002-Spider-Man: 114 Million (178 Million) (First movie to make 100 Million Opening Weekend)
2006-Pirates of the Carribean 2: 135 Million (186 Million)
2007-Spider-Man 3: 151 Million (197 Million)
2008-The Dark Knight: 158 Million (198 Million)
2011-Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: 169 Million (191 Million)
2012-The Avengers: 207 Million (230 Million) (First movie to make 200 Million Opening Weekend)
2015-Jurassic World: 208 Million (228 Million)
2015: Star Wars Episode 7: 247 Million (256 Million)
2018: Avengers: Infinity War: 257 Million (247 Million), yes the average movie ticket has gone down since last year.
2019: Avengers: Endgame: 357 Million (First movie to make 300 Million Opening weekend)
As you can see, even if you give every movie 2019 ticket prices, none of them come even with 100 million of endgame, really putting into perspective how unreal this opening weekend is. When will it be topped? I am betting on 2030 at the earliest.
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